The Plateau Law
Hall et al. 2011 dynamic energy-balance model · educational simulation · static snapshot
Individual long-run loss carries about a ±4 kg band from baseline expenditure uncertainty alone (Hall 2011). Not medical advice.
Guess first
An average adult (mean of an 80 kg woman and 100 kg man, age 35, PAL 1.5) cuts 500 kcal/day for one year. How many pounds do they lose?
Most people say about 52 lb — the 3,500 kcal/lb rule.
Your guess: lb
Wishnofsky linear rule: lb
NIH dynamic model (this page): lb · plateau ~ lb by year 10
Your body & cut
Weight trajectory
Dashed: Wishnofsky 3,500 kcal/lb. Solid: Hall NIH curve. Markers at 1, 2, 3 years and long-run plateau.
Where the deficit goes
At day 365, maintenance expenditure has fallen. Bars show kcal/day of the original cut absorbed by each mechanism (sum ≈ EE drop).
Remaining net deficit: kcal/day · EE drop:
Tissue breakdown (Forbes)
Model-estimated new maintenance
Model-projected daily energy expenditure of this simulated body at day 365 (zero-flux burn at lower weight). This is a mathematical estimate of what the body would burn at the lower mass, not a personal calorie target or diet prescription.
kcal/dayStarting baseline expenditure: kcal/day
Real trial evidence
CALERIE 2 (randomized n=, CR arm n=): 12-month mean loss kg (SEM ); 24-month kg — regain while restriction drifted to ~% of baseline intake.
Minnesota Starvation (34 of 36 who finished 24 weeks, 1945 report): mean loss kg — far below Wishnofsky on published intake ranges; calories were titrated to a target curve, not a fixed deficit.
Trials differ in adherence, activity, and protocol; the slider model holds the cut constant.
Sources & references
- Hall KD, Sacks G, Chandramohan D, et al. (2011). Quantification of the effect of energy imbalance on bodyweight. The Lancet, 378(9793), 826–837. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60812-X · NIDDK model: niddk.nih.gov/bwp
- Wishnofsky M. (1958). Caloric equivalents of gained or lost weight. Am J Clin Nutr, 6(5), 542–546. doi:10.1093/ajcn/6.5.542
- Ravussin E, Redman LM, Rochon J, et al. / CALERIE Study Group (2015). A 2-year randomized controlled trial of human caloric restriction feasibility and effects on predictors of health span and longevity. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci, 70(9), 1097–1104. doi:10.1093/gerona/glv057
- Dorling JL, Das SK, Racette SB, et al. / CALERIE Study Group (2020). Changes in body weight, adherence, and appetite during 2 years of calorie restriction. Eur J Clin Nutr, 74(8), 1210–1220. doi:10.1038/s41430-020-0593-8
- Keys A, Brožek J, Henschel A, Mickelsen O, Taylor HL. (1950). The Biology of Human Starvation. University of Minnesota Press.
Browser integrator matches check.py at the folder root (Runge-Kutta 4th order, dt = 1 day).